Existing-home sales expected to rise 6.8% this year

By Inman News
Inman News®

More homes went under contract in January compared to December and a year ago, according to an index released today from the National Association of REALTORS® that tracks pending sales of existing U.S. homes.

NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on purchase contracts signed but not yet closed, rose 8 percent from January 2011 and 2 percent from a downwardly revised 95.1 percent in December, to 97. According to revised figures, that’s the highest index score since April 2010, just before the deadline for a federal homebuyer tax credit program, when the index was at 111.3.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement that “the trend in contract activity implies we are on track for a more meaningful sales gain this year.”

“Movements in the index have been uneven, reflecting the headwinds of tight credit, but job gains, high affordability and rising rents are hopefully pushing the market into what appears to be a sustained housing recovery,” Yun added.

The index typically represents about 20 percent of all existing-home transactions nationally. An index score of 100 is equal to the average level of sales contract activity in 2001, which was the first year examined by the trade group and a robust year for existing-home sales. The national index has not been above 100 since April 2010.

The index rose year over year in all four U.S. regions with the Midwest seeing the highest increase. That region saw a 10.8 percent jump, to 88.1, though the index fell 3.8 percent compared to December.

The South experienced a similar yearly increase in January, 10.5 percent, and the largest monthly increase, 7.7 percent, to 109.1 — the highest index score among the regions.

The index rose 9.8 percent year over year and 7.6 percent month to month in the Northeast, to 78.2 — the lowest index score among the four regions.

Pending sales in the West remained nearly flat in January, with the index rising a slight 0.7 percent on a yearly basis last month, to 101.9. The index fell 4.4 percent from December.

In its latest economic outlook, also out today, NAR projects existing-home sales will rise 6.8 percent to 4.55 million units in 2012, from 4.26 million units in 2011. In 2013, sales are expected to rise 3.3 percent to 4.7 million.

The trade group expects the median price for existing homes to rise a slight 1.1 percent this year, to $168,000, with a subsequent 2.4 percent rise in 2013 to $172,000.

NAR predicts rents will rise 3.3 percent this year, followed by a 3.8 percent increase in 2013.

The forecast also anticipates new-home sales will rise 21.3 percent in 2012 to 370,000, and jump 37.8 percent in 2013 to 510,000. New-home sales fell 5 percent in 2011 to 305,000.

NAR estimates this year’s median price for new-home sales will be $228,000, a 2.1 percent rise from 2011. NAR expects the median will rise 3.5 percent to $236,000 in 2013.

The trade group expects this year’s real gross domestic product growth rate to be 2.4 percent, followed by a rate of 3.1 percent in 2013, up from 1.7 percent in 2011.

NAR expects this year’s unemployment rate to average 8.3 percent, down from 9 percent in 2011, and projects a drop to 7.7 percent in 2013.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 4.5 percent in 2011 and will fall to 4.2 percent in 2012 before rising to 4.9 percent in 2013, according to NAR’s projections.

Robo-signing impacts felt most in judicial foreclosure states

By Inman News
Inman News®

CORRECTION: The original version of this article erroneously referred to statistics for the current year, and has been updated with corrections.

The improving job market and economy is helping push mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure starts down, but the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process remains stubbornly high, especially in states most affected by robo-signing issues, according to a quarterly survey of lenders by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Since peaking at 10.1 percent in March 2010, the percentage of borrowers behind on their house payments has fallen to a seasonally adjusted 7.6 percent at the end of 2011 — about halfway to the pre-recession average of roughly 5 percent, said MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann.

The percentage of loans entering the foreclosure process — which before the downturn averaged just under 0.5 percent — has also declined, from a peak of 1.4 percent at the end of third-quarter 2009 to 1 percent at the end of fourth-quarter 2011.

But at 4.4 percent, the percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of 2011 was not far off the all-time high of 4.6 percent seen at the end of 2010. That compares to the long-term norm of roughly 1.2 percent.

Robo-signing issues — which lenders hope to put behind them this year as they implement recently announced settlement with state attorneys general — have created foreclosure backlogs.

While foreclosure starts are falling, it’s taking loan servicers longer to auction off or repossess homes once they enter the foreclosure process, particularly in states where courts oversee the process.

In “judicial foreclosure” states where courts handle most foreclosures, 6.8 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure at the end of 2011. In “nonjudicial” foreclosure states where most foreclosures are processed outside of the court system, loan servicers are clearing the backlog more quickly, and 2.8 percent of mortgages were in foreclosure.

The MBA survey covers 42.9 million loans on one- to four-unit residential properties, or about 88 percent of all first-lien mortgages. Extrapolating the surveys results suggests that of the 48.75 million mortgages outstanding at the end of 2011, 2.13 million were in the foreclosure process.

Five states accounted for more than half of all loans in foreclosure — Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey. All but California are judicial foreclosure states.

Percentage of loans in foreclosure by state

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Click to enlarge.

The 10 states with the greatest percentage of mortgages in foreclosure were: Florida (14.27 percent), New Jersey (8.21 percent), Illinois (7.41 percent), Nevada (7.03 percent), Maine (5.92 percent), New York (5.88 percent), Connecticut (5.05 percent), Hawaii (4.97 percent), Ohio (4.94 percent), and Indiana (4.94 percent). All but Nevada are judicial foreclosure states.

The states with the lowest foreclosure rates were: Wyoming (1.03 percent), North Dakota (1.05 percent), Alaska (1.06 percent), Nebraska (1.55 percent), South Dakota (1.75 percent), Montana (1.76 percent), Texas (1.78 percent), Virginia (1.84 percent), Alabama (1.94 percent), and Arkansas (1.97 percent). Among those states, only North Dakota handles foreclosures judicially.

Buying a home should be fun, not stressful. As you look for your dream home, keep in mind these tips for making the process as peaceful as possible.

1. Find a real estate agent who you connect with. Home buying is not only a big financial commitment, but also an emotional one. It’s critical that the REALTOR® you chose is both highly skilled and a good fit with your personality.

2. Remember, there’s no “right” time to buy, just as there’s no perfect time to sell. If you find a home now, don’t try to second-guess interest rates or the housing market by waiting longer — you risk losing out on the home of your dreams. The housing market usually doesn’t change fast enough to make that much difference in price, and a good home won’t stay on the market long.

3. Don’t ask for too many opinions. It’s natural to want reassurance for such a big decision, but too many ideas from too many people will make it much harder to make a decision. Focus on the wants and needs of your immediate family — the people who will be living in the home.

4. Accept that no house is ever perfect. If it’s in the right location, the yard may be a bit smaller than you had hoped. The kitchen may be perfect, but the roof needs repair. Make a list of your top priorities and focus in on things that are most important to you. Let the minor ones go.

5. Don’t try to be a killer negotiator. Negotiation is definitely a part of the real estate process, but trying to “win” by getting an extra-low price or by refusing to budge on your offer may cost you the home you love. Negotiation is give and take.

6. Remember your home doesn’t exist in a vacuum. Don’t get so caught up in the physical aspects of the house itself — room size, kitchen, etc. — that you forget about important issues as noise level, location to amenities, and other aspects that also have a big impact on your quality of life.

7. Plan ahead. Don’t wait until you’ve found a home and made an offer to get approved for a mortgage, investigate home insurance, and consider a schedule for moving. Presenting an offer contingent on a lot of unresolved issues will make your bid much less attractive to sellers.

8. Factor in maintenance and repair costs in your post-home buying budget. Even if you buy a new home, there will be costs. Don’t leave yourself short and let your home deteriorate.

9. Accept that a little buyer’s remorse is inevitable and will probably pass. Buying a home, especially for the first time, is a big financial commitment. But it also yields big benefits. Don’t lose sight of why you wanted to buy a home and what made you fall in love with the property you purchased.

10. Choose a home first because you love it; then think about appreciation. While U.S. homes have appreciated an average of 5.4 percent annually over from 1998 to 2002, a home’s most important role is to serve as a comfortable, safe place to live.